Future Proofing Hawaiʻi’s Urban Forests from the Impacts of Climate Change: Investigating a new palette of trees that thrive in changing conditions and produce the greatest benefits for Hawaiʻi’s communities
This study seeks to identify new tree species that should thrive in Hawaiʻi as the impacts of climate change are felt. This would be accomplished through a two-phase process. First, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) will be used to identify tree species that should adapt well to Hawaiʻi’s changing temperatures, precipitation rates, and high severity storm events. Second, the most promising species identified by the SDMs will be planted throughout Honolulu, Hawaiʻi to verify the study’s initial findings. The result will be an expanded plant palette of tree species that require fewer management inputs to thrive (i.e., water, nutrients, pruning, etc.,) which will facilitate more resilient urban forests throughout the state to maximize the human health, ecosystem services, and cultural benefits trees provide for all of Hawaiʻi’s communities.
Additional Information
Hawaiʻi is already facing noticeable impacts from climate change, the severity of which is only expected to worsen as we move closer to 2100. Honolulu has seen an increase in temperature of 2.6°F since 1950, with this value predicted to increase by another 1.8°F to 7.2°F towards the end of the century (City and County of Honolulu, 2025). This has been further compounded by changing precipitation rates which have begun to result in more extreme drought and flooding events that have led to water availability and wildfire issues (Center for Climate Integrity, 2024). A recent study conducted in Hawaiʻi showed that approximately two-thirds of the 39 native and invasive species examined, many of which were native species, will have their habitat range reduced based on predicted climate scenarios for the state (Camp et al., 2022). Planting resilient tree species can help to mitigate many of the predicted climate change impacts in Hawaiʻi. It is well established that trees are vital form of green infrastructure that cool environments, stabilize soils, promote aquifer recharging, reduce flooding, promote biodiversity, are essential components of society and cultures, and have profound benefits on human health. Identifying climate-resilient species can provide these benefits and more, including outcompeting invasive species and reducing wildfire risks, which are needed now more than ever in Hawaiʻi’s rapidly changing climate.
Additional Information
Hawaiʻi is already facing noticeable impacts from climate change, the severity of which is only expected to worsen as we move closer to 2100. Honolulu has seen an increase in temperature of 2.6°F since 1950, with this value predicted to increase by another 1.8°F to 7.2°F towards the end of the century (City and County of Honolulu, 2025). This has been further compounded by changing precipitation rates which have begun to result in more extreme drought and flooding events that have led to water availability and wildfire issues (Center for Climate Integrity, 2024). A recent study conducted in Hawaiʻi showed that approximately two-thirds of the 39 native and invasive species examined, many of which were native species, will have their habitat range reduced based on predicted climate scenarios for the state (Camp et al., 2022). Planting resilient tree species can help to mitigate many of the predicted climate change impacts in Hawaiʻi. It is well established that trees are vital form of green infrastructure that cool environments, stabilize soils, promote aquifer recharging, reduce flooding, promote biodiversity, are essential components of society and cultures, and have profound benefits on human health. Identifying climate-resilient species can provide these benefits and more, including outcompeting invasive species and reducing wildfire risks, which are needed now more than ever in Hawaiʻi’s rapidly changing climate.